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Metro Apartment Supply Must Play Catch-Up to Reach Vision 2030 Goals

Supply Expected to Fall Off in Late 2018, 2019

By Dave Sorter | Friday, July 28, 2017

 Apartment supply

Second of a two-part series on the Vision 2030 study.

The “Vision 2030” project conducted by the National Apartment Association and the National Multifamily Housing Council advanced a lofty goal of constructing or rehabilitating 4.6 million new apartments by 2030. Our previous post about the study showed that current RealPage apartment supply projections would be moderately short of the objective.

The same goes for many of the metro apartment markets that Vision 2030 identifies as having the most need, either by number of units or by annual percentage of inventory increase. Of the 13 total markets among the top 10 in at least one of the two categories – seven are listed in both – at least five will have to pick up the pace of construction to meet the supply goal set by the study.

  

The top 10 metros for new supply needed by number of units:

City Units Needed
New York* 278,634
Dallas-Fort Worth 266,296
Houston 214,176
Miami-Fort Lauderdale 185,414
Atlanta 176,095
Los Angeles** 164,021
Phoenix 150,302
Orlando 130,177
Washington, DC*** 127,962
Austin 114,076


*-New York includes Long Island and Newark
**-Los Angeles includes Orange County
***-Washington, DC includes Silver Spring

Source: Vision 2030/NAA/NMHC 

The top 10 metros based on recommended annual inventory growth:



  Click to enlarge in new tab

 

Seven of the 10 metro apartment markets that will need the most new units delivered, per Vision 2030, also made the top 10 annual inventory growth list. Raleigh, Charlotte and Las Vegas replaced New York, Los Angeles and DC on the latter chart. 

Of the 13 cities mentioned in at least one of the two lists, Raleigh, Phoenix, Las Vegas, South Florida and Orlando will have to start building at an average rate higher than identified 2017 supply, while the other eight metros are on a good pace to meet the objective.

For now.

While new apartment supply has not yet reached its peak, with almost 400,000 new units expected in 2017, it probably will within the next nine months. National supply rates are expected to moderate to around 300,000 in 2018 and continue falling in 2019, according to RealPage apartment market forecasts. Of course, future national and local economic factors, including the continuing shortage of construction labor could affect the supply numbers in either direction. 

 

City ID 2017 # Needed Needed
2018-2030
% of Total Per Year
Raleigh 3,372 74,323 70,951 95.5% 5,717.2
Phoenix 6,987 150,302 143,315 95.4% 11,561.7
Las Vegas 4,106 87,280 83,174 95.3% 6,713.8
Miami-Fort Lauderdale 10,650 185,414 174,764 94.3% 14,262.6
Orlando 7,808 130,177 122,369 94.0% 10,013.6
Austin 9,737 114,076 104,339 91.5% 8,775.1
Atlanta 14,692 170,095 155,403 91.4% 13,084.2
Houston 20,358 214,176 193,818 90.5% 16,475.1
New York 28,441 278,634 250,193 89.8% 21,433.4
Dallas-Fort Worth 28,638 266,296 237,658 89.2% 20,484.3
Washington, DC 14,440 127,962 113,522 88.7% 9,843.2
Los Angeles/Orange County 18,679 164,021 145,342 88.6% 12,617.0
Charlotte 8,889 71,573 62,684 87.6% 5,505.6

Source: RealPage

 

The annual number of units needed to meet the Vision 2030 goal in Raleigh, Phoenix, Miami and Orlando would require construction to continue at rates far above the cyclical peaks for the next 13 years. The needed per-year velocity in the metros where annual deliveries are lower than the 2017 level are more within reach, but some leave little margin for extended construction slowdowns. For example, the Houston pipeline is expected to clear out considerably after the current set of under-construction properties is completed. 

The Vision 2030 study, facilitated by Hoyt Advisory Services, determined metro demand via a formula that included Moody’s Economy.com forecast along with a model that defines renter households by subtracting homeownership rates and the homeless rate from total households in each metro. RealPage’s supply forecast takes into account past trends, current permitting levels and projections of economic indicators, among other factors.

While the amount of new units Vision 2030 advocates seems high, the report details several ways governmental bodies can help spur development, including economic incentives and easing of some restrictions to building. If public-private agreements can be fostered in the next few years, the development goals may be in reach.

 

 

Dave Sorter

Dave Sorter

Journalist

Dave Sorter is an award-winning journalist who spent 30 years as a newspaper reporter and editor before joining Axiometrics. He oversees all Axio blogs and newsletters and serves as senior editor of all Axio publications.

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