Atlanta Apartment Market Expected to Perform Well in Early 2017
Late Moderation Forecasted
By Jay Denton | Wednesday, December 21, 2016
The Atlanta apartment market, still among the nation’s strongest in November 2016, is expected to continue its high performance in the first quarter of 2017 but
moderate later in the year, according to Axiometrics apartment data.
While Atlanta’s 4.6% annual effective rent growth in November follows the 2016 moderation trend, Axiometrics forecasts rent growth to climb back above 5% in the first quarter of next year before falling to 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Though demand is expected to remain relatively steady next year with job growth at or just below the October level of 2.7%, the 14,200 new apartment units identified for delivery in 2017 will lift the pace of supply well above demand.
Atlanta was a late-emerging market after the recession, and new supply didn’t really start coming in until 2013 and 2014. The peak will come next year as pent-up demand is met and exceeded. The competition to fill units will be fierce, and landlords will have little leverage to push rents.
In researching Atlanta as compared to the national market, Axiometrics reported data as follows:
The rolling two-year data for rent growth and occupancy in Atlanta signal relatively steady rent-growth performance and volatile occupancy.
Among Atlanta submarkets, the following recorded the highest annual effective rent growth in November 2016. The Atlanta/Fulton submarket, which includes Downtown and Buckhead, had 2.9% rent growth.